Speculators on the prediction market platform Kalshi have dramatically increased their wagers that US gasoline prices will exceed $4 per gallon by the end of July.
The probability of this outcome has jumped to 90% from 56% over the past two days, according to data reported by CNBC.
Traders are now pricing in a 93% chance that prices will clear the $4 mark, with the odds of a breach occurring earlier in the month also rising significantly.
The sharp repricing reflects a sudden shift in market sentiment regarding near-term fuel costs.
Traders are now pricing in a 93% chance that prices will clear the $4 mark, with the odds of a breach occurring earlier in the month also rising significantly.
This rapid escalation in betting activity suggests that market participants are reacting to fresh supply-side pressures or geopolitical risks that have not yet been fully priced into traditional energy benchmarks.
This development follows a broader trend of elevated bets on high gasoline prices.