Kotak Securities has projected that the Indian rupee will not breach the 100 level against the US dollar, even in a scenario where crude oil prices surge to $105 per barrel.
The brokerage’s analysis suggests that while elevated energy costs driven by geopolitical tensions in West Asia pose a significant headwind, structural factors and valuation support will likely contain currency depreciation.
Shrikant Chouhan, an analyst at Kotak, outlined scenario-based projections indicating that surging crude prices would act as a ceiling for Indian equity market rallies.
However, he noted that strong valuations and support levels near 23,800 on major indices would cushion potential downsides, limiting the broader market impact of the currency pressure.
The outlook comes as the Indian rupee has faced recent volatility, with traders previously projecting a narrow trading range around 94.40 against the dollar.
More recent market sentiment had pointed toward a weakening trend toward the 96 level, driven by rising crude prices and elevated US Treasury yields.
Kotak’s assessment provides a counter-narrative to short-term bearish flows, emphasizing longer-term resilience.