The global oil market is operating with no safety net.
While Brent crude has stabilized just above its pre-conflict baseline, industry participants warn that the global crude supply buffer has been completely exhausted.
This structural vulnerability means that even minor escalations in geopolitical tensions—particularly between the United States and Iran—could trigger sharp repricing, as there is no spare capacity to absorb supply disruptions.
Markets have yet to fully price in this growing crisis.
Despite the apparent calm in oil prices, the underlying fragility of the supply chain remains a critical risk factor.
The initial shock of the Iran conflict has been digested by traders, but the diplomatic road ahead remains uncertain.
With the risk premium fading from headlines, the focus has shifted to the physical reality of tight inventories and constrained logistics.