Ludwik Kotecki, a member of the Monetary Policy Council at the National Bank of Poland (NBP), has cautioned that the current inflationary environment is diverging from the central bank's July projections.
The shift is driven by rising crude oil and fuel prices, which are altering the inflation outlook and complicating the path for monetary policy.
Kotecki stated that it is too early to make any declarations regarding a potential interest rate cut in September, signaling a more cautious stance from the central bank.
The comments come as global energy markets face renewed pressure, with Brent crude prices climbing amid persistent shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
This external shock is directly impacting Polish fuel costs, creating a headwind for the NBP's disinflation efforts.
The divergence from earlier forecasts suggests that the central bank may need to maintain a tighter policy stance for longer than previously anticipated by markets.