Russia has publicly offered to provide security for Mozambique's $20 billion liquefied natural gas hub, a move that directly challenges Europe's strategy to diversify away from Russian energy supplies.
The offer, made by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on July 9, frames the African project as a zone of Russian interest, potentially deterring Western investment and complicating export flows to the continent.
The development strikes at the heart of Europe's energy transition.
As European nations seek to fill storage gaps ahead of winter, they have increasingly looked to alternative suppliers to reduce reliance on Moscow.
However, the immediate market reality has often involved paying premium prices for Russian gas to ensure supply continuity.
A Russian security guarantee in Mozambique could effectively block one of the most promising alternative sources, keeping European buyers dependent on Russian flows.