Russia's central bank slashes 2026 GDP forecast to near-zero as fuel crisis fuels inflation

Elvira Nabiullina warns of 6-7% inflation this year, a sharp reversal from earlier expectations, as energy shortages squeeze the economy.

By Handelsavisen Newsroom · Automated 2026-07-25 14:08 UTC · 1 min read

The Central Bank of Russia has drastically downgraded its economic outlook for 2026, projecting gross domestic product growth of just 0.0% to 1.0%.

Governor Elvira Nabiullina cited a deepening fuel crisis as the primary driver, noting that soaring energy costs are already pushing up prices across a broad range of goods and services.

5%–5.5% range. The revised projections underscore the severity of the supply-side shocks currently gripping the Russian economy.

In a significant shift from previous guidance, the regulator now expects inflation to accelerate to between 6% and 7% this year.

This stands in stark contrast to earlier forecasts, which had anticipated a cooling of price pressures to the 4.5%–5.5% range.

The revised projections underscore the severity of the supply-side shocks currently gripping the Russian economy.

The downgrade comes against a backdrop of already sluggish growth.