Saxo Bank sees structural barriers capping Brent crude below $100 despite geopolitical risks

Analysts argue that weak demand fundamentals and ample spare capacity prevent a sustained surge, even as Middle East tensions keep a floor under prices.

By Handelsavisen Newsroom · Automated 2026-07-18 07:39 UTC · 1 min read

Brent crude futures are facing significant headwinds to a sustained rally toward the $100 per barrel mark, according to new analysis from Saxo Bank.

While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to provide a price floor, the Danish lender argues that structural market realities make a breakout to triple digits highly improbable in the current cycle.

The bank’s analysts point to a combination of weak global demand growth and substantial spare production capacity as the primary barriers to higher prices.

Despite recent volatility driven by shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the underlying supply-demand balance remains tilted toward oversupply, limiting the upside potential for the benchmark crude.

This assessment contrasts with more bearish warnings from industry executives, including Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi, who has previously cautioned that prices could surge past $100 if Persian Gulf nations fail to fully restore export volumes.

However, Saxo Bank’s view suggests that even in a scenario of partial supply disruption, the market lacks the demand strength to support such elevated levels.