Sberbank has significantly downgraded its economic forecast for Russia, projecting gross domestic product growth of just 0% to 0.5% for 2026, a sharp reduction from its previous estimate of 0.5% to 1%.
Simultaneously, the lender raised its inflation forecast for the year to a range of 6.5% to 7%, signaling persistent price pressures despite the stagnating economy.
Taras Skvortsov, Sberbank’s Chief Financial Officer, outlined the revised projections during a conference call on Tuesday.
The adjustment reflects a deteriorating macroeconomic environment where growth is effectively stalling while inflation remains elevated, a combination that complicates monetary policy and corporate planning.
The bank’s revised outlook aligns closely with the recent downgrade issued by the Central Bank of Russia, which earlier projected GDP growth of only 0.0% to 1.0% for the same period.
This convergence between the state-owned bank and the central bank underscores a broad consensus on the limited expansion potential of the Russian economy amid ongoing structural constraints and external pressures.