Standard Chartered has forecast that crude oil prices will stabilize around $80 per barrel, dismissing the potential economic toll of the Strait of Hormuz as a primary driver for a market crash.
The lender argues that while geopolitical friction persists, the market has largely priced in the risk premium associated with shipping disruptions in the chokepoint.
The bank’s analysts project that prices may gradually taper toward $70 per barrel over the medium term but consider a collapse to the $60 levels seen earlier in the year unlikely.
The bank’s analysts project that prices may gradually taper toward $70 per barrel over the medium term but consider a collapse to the $60 levels seen earlier in the year unlikely.
This assessment suggests that supply fundamentals and demand resilience are currently outweighing the immediate threat of transit costs or physical blockages in the Gulf.
The forecast comes as crude benchmarks have shown signs of stabilization following a period of volatility.
Increased tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz have signaled a reduction in immediate fears of a total supply cutoff, allowing markets to recalibrate away from peak panic levels.