Global trade volumes expanded by 12.5% in the first half of 2026, but the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) cautioned that the headline figure is largely inflated by price hikes rather than robust demand.
The organization stated that a significant share of the increase reflects higher prices caused by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing concerns about fuel supply chains.
The data underscores the persistent economic friction caused by geopolitical instability in key maritime corridors.
Despite recent signals from Iran regarding a selective reopening of the Strait for compliant shipping, UNCTAD warned that this does not signal an immediate end to the economic disruption.
The agency’s assessment suggests that the cost of moving goods remains elevated, distorting traditional trade metrics and masking underlying volume trends.
The disruption has triggered a reshuffling of global logistics networks.