Brent crude faces significant downside pressure if the current geopolitical premium unwinds, according to a new analysis from UniCredit’s Investment Institute.
The bank’s economists warn that without the ongoing crisis in Iran, oil prices could drop below $60 a barrel, highlighting the fragility of current market support levels.
The analysts project that Brent will average around $80 a barrel through the end of the third quarter of 2026.
The analysts project that Brent will average around $80 a barrel through the end of the third quarter of 2026.
However, they anticipate a gradual decline thereafter, driven by the expectation of at least a partial peace agreement by the end of the summer.
This forecast underscores the extent to which current prices are propped up by supply disruption fears rather than fundamental demand strength.
This view aligns with broader concerns about the sustainability of oil prices in a de-escalation scenario.