The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that global oil production and trade flows will fully recover from disruptions caused by the war in Iran by the end of 2026.
The agency also forecast that the global benchmark Brent crude will average approximately $74 per barrel in the spot market during the third quarter, a significant decline from the $85 average recorded in June.
The drop from June’s $85 average to the projected $74 for Q3 indicates that traders are beginning to price in a stabilization of supply routes, even as geopolitical risks remain elevated.
This downward revision in near-term price expectations signals a cooling of the immediate supply shock premium that has weighed on energy markets.
The EIA’s assessment suggests that while the conflict has caused substantial volatility, the structural capacity of the global oil market to absorb the disruption is stronger than previously feared.
The drop from June’s $85 average to the projected $74 for Q3 indicates that traders are beginning to price in a stabilization of supply routes, even as geopolitical risks remain elevated.
The EIA’s outlook stands in contrast to recent warnings from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has cautioned that the ongoing military conflict between the United States and Iran is inflicting severe damage on global oil demand.