Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity is set to expand by 65% over the next five years, with the United States projected to account for approximately half of that growth, according to Anvar Gafiatullin, partner and oil and gas practice leader at Business Consulting Group.
The forecast underscores a structural shift in the global energy landscape, where American supply is poised to dominate incremental capacity additions while Russia faces mounting challenges in maintaining its market share.
Despite an 8% increase in LNG exports during the first half of 2026, adding 2 billion cubic meters to shipments, the country faces a "cold reception" in global markets, according to Gafiatullin.
The rapid expansion of US LNG infrastructure reflects sustained investment in export terminals and production facilities, driven by competitive pricing and access to key Asian and European markets.
This surge in American supply capacity is expected to reshape trade flows, potentially displacing cargoes from other major exporters and tightening margins for producers lacking cost advantages or strategic partnerships.
For Russia, the outlook presents significant headwinds.
Despite an 8% increase in LNG exports during the first half of 2026, adding 2 billion cubic meters to shipments, the country faces a "cold reception" in global markets, according to Gafiatullin.