The International Energy Agency has projected that global demand for critical minerals will rise sharply through 2040, driven by the rapid expansion of electric vehicles, battery storage systems, renewable energy infrastructure, and electricity networks.
Despite this growth trajectory, the agency warns that supply gaps for essential minerals are likely to persist, creating a structural mismatch between the energy transition's material requirements and available production capacity.
To bridge this widening divide, the IEA estimates that more than $750 billion in investment will be required in mining and refining operations between now and 2040 under its Stated Policies Scenario.
To bridge this widening divide, the IEA estimates that more than $750 billion in investment will be required in mining and refining operations between now and 2040 under its Stated Policies Scenario.
This capital requirement underscores the scale of the challenge facing commodity markets and mining companies, which must secure financing and permits for new projects while navigating increasingly complex geopolitical and environmental regulations.
The report highlights that the deficit is not uniform across all materials but is particularly acute for minerals essential to battery technology and renewable energy generation.
This persistent supply risk adds a layer of uncertainty to the cost structures of automakers and energy developers, who rely on stable and affordable access to these inputs to meet their own decarbonization targets.