Brent crude futures are facing the prospect of a sharp repricing toward $120 per barrel if current supply disruptions intensify, according to market analysis cited by regional media.
The warning comes as geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on global energy flows, with traders increasingly pricing in the risk of a severe supply shock.
However, the $120 scenario represents a tail risk that could materialize if geopolitical conflicts escalate further or if major producers fail to offset losses from disrupted regions.
Brent crude surged to $82.30 per barrel on Monday, climbing 2.2% at the open, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose above the $78 mark.
The rally reflects growing investor anxiety over potential bottlenecks in key shipping routes and production hubs.
S&P Global Energy has projected that international crude oil prices will likely trade within the $80 to $90 per barrel range during the second half of 2026, citing declining global inventory levels and a normalization of demand growth.
However, the $120 scenario represents a tail risk that could materialize if geopolitical conflicts escalate further or if major producers fail to offset losses from disrupted regions.