The United Kingdom and major European economies risk contracting gross domestic product this year if the Strait of Hormuz does not resume full operations by mid-October, according to new estimates from consulting firms cited by Bloomberg.
The warning underscores the deepening economic vulnerability of Europe to geopolitical disruptions in global energy supply chains.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical artery for global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, and its continued instability threatens to exacerbate existing inflationary pressures and supply constraints across the continent.
Compounding the supply-side risks, Qatar has signaled that it plans to notify European customers that its force majeure declaration regarding gas exports will persist until mid-October.
This extension limits the ability of European utilities to secure alternative LNG cargoes, tightening the market just as demand patterns shift into the autumn season.
The economic outlook comes as diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region show limited progress.