Iraq has declined to confirm whether recent attacks on Gulf targets were launched from its territory, a diplomatic stance that Western sources warn could precipitate a severe internal power struggle.
The ambiguity leaves Baghdad caught between factions seeking to distance the country from regional proxy conflicts and those prioritizing alignment with Tehran's strategic axis.
This lack of clarity sustains geopolitical risk in the Middle East, particularly for energy and shipping markets already sensitive to Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
The refusal to admit the origin of the strikes prevents a definitive de-escalation, keeping insurance premiums and freight rates elevated as traders price in the possibility of further cross-border incidents.
The development follows a significant escalation in which Iran launched a surprise attack, triggering a joint military response from the United States and Saudi Arabia within Iraqi borders.
This cross-border operation has already marked a sharp intensification of the ongoing conflict, raising concerns about the stability of Iraq's sovereignty and the safety of commercial routes in the region.