Speculators on the prediction market platform Kalshi have sharply downgraded the probability of shipping traffic returning to normal levels in the Strait of Hormuz before the end of 2026.
The odds of a return to normal operations by December 1 have fallen to 44%, signaling that market participants expect the geopolitical friction to persist well into next year.
The shift in sentiment follows President Donald Trump’s declaration that the ceasefire with Iran is "over." The U.S. president made the statement after American forces conducted strikes against the Islamic Republic, a response to recent attacks on commercial vessels navigating the critical waterway.
The escalation marks a significant deterioration in the security environment for maritime trade in the region.
This repricing of risk comes as operational disruptions mount.
India has reportedly sought safe passage for nine tankers stranded near the Strait as the truce falters, highlighting the immediate logistical challenges facing global energy flows.