South Africa’s push to unlock its shale gas reserves faces a fresh geological hurdle after researchers identified a previously unknown fault line linked to recent seismic activity.
Scientists at the University of Cape Town (UCT) reported that the fault, discovered behind a swarm of 66 earthquakes, suggests that conditions for induced seismicity—common in other global shale regions—may also exist beneath parts of the Karoo basin.
The findings arrive as the government moves to lift its long-standing ban on fracking, raising questions about the safety and feasibility of large-scale extraction in the region.
The discovery adds a layer of complexity to the energy transition narrative in South Africa, where shale gas is viewed by some as a potential bridge fuel to reduce reliance on coal.
However, the risk of induced earthquakes could deter investors and complicate regulatory approvals.
While the country holds significant estimated recoverable resources, ranging from 13 trillion cubic feet to as high as 390 trillion cubic feet according to past studies, the new geological data underscores the uncertainties inherent in developing such projects.